Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x7258…302f crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+12%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$69
other 7% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +7.8% -2.5% 47% 47% +14.4%
≤30d 38 +7.8% -2.5% 47% 47% +14.4%
≤90d 38 +7.8% -2.5% 47% 47% +14.4%
all 38 +7.8% -2.5% 47% 47% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 47% +14.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 42% +3.4%
15% -20.3% 39% -6.6%
20% -28.1% 37% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$5 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$5 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$11 +200%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records