Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:22:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

72
0x7258…a6b8
sports · 171 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses77 / 85
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)162 / 171
History coverage13d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 9 History 162 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 36¢ 82¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+125%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 69¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 34¢ 3¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sinners 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B LPH Gaming 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 M80 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 M80 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Stage Oxuji Esports 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $2 +$1 +73%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 +$3 +150%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$3 +114%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +83%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 10 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +65%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $2 +$3 +129%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2 +$1 +57%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 +$2 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $2 −$1 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $3 +$2 +72%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 09 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 −$2 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $9 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 09 $3 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $2 +$1 +55%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $2 −$1 -78%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 $0 +20%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $3 $0 -4%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 +$2 +79%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $3 −$2 -63%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +116%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +69%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $3 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 07 $4 $0 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $2 +$2 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $2 +$2 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $3 +$1 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 77% +$4
crypto 12% −$7
other 11% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $1 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 69¢ $3 20m
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 53¢ $3 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 57¢ $2 20h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 42¢ $1 20h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $1 21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 39¢ $1 33h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $2 46h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 39¢ $2 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 80¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 35¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 28¢ $1 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $2 2d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 2d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 43¢ $2 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $2 3d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 54¢ $2 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $2 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 53¢ $2 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League SELL Shifters 96¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -7.5% -16.4% 50% 46% -15.3%
≤30d 162 -4.1% -13.3% 48% 46% -12.2%
≤90d 162 -4.1% -13.3% 48% 46% -12.2%
all 162 -4.1% -13.3% 48% 46% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 46% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 43% -20.6%
15% -29.1% 40% -28.3%
20% -36.1% 35% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.56 · official $33.56 (match) · 310 history records