Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7257…c470 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$2
other 16% −$3
politics 8% $0
weather 3% −$3
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 6% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 48 -10.0% -18.6% 38% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 2% -10.4%
10% -26.4% 2% -18.9%
15% -33.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -40.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage475d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $31 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $31 −$1 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $3 $0 -10%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $62 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $28 +$3 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $63 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 24 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 20 $4 $0 -10%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $7 $0 +3%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on March 14? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 14? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Illinois win the Big Ten conference tournament? Mar 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 13 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 11? Mar 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Jew" or "Jewish" 3+ times during his presser with Irel Mar 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 8? Mar 11 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $30 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 25h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No $2 30h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No $1 30h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 10¢ $3 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $32 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $32 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $32 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $32 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $29 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $31 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $31 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $31 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $3 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $28 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $22 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records