Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7256…c07b crypto 363 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-1%) realized −$23 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%351W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$44
14 days−$39
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$35
other 8% −$15
finance 7% −$11
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -4.1% -13.2% 94% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 192 -1.4% -10.8% 97% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 361 -0.8% -10.2% 97% 0% -10.0%
all 361 -0.8% -10.2% 97% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses351 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)361 / 363
History coverage71d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET Up 98¢ 50¢ $49 $25 −$24 (-49%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 99¢ 50¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $45 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $13 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $45 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 15h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 96¢ $50 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 98¢ $50 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $30 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 33h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 35h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $6 37h
XRP Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 99¢ $49 39h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.88 · official $31.00 (match) · 1840 history records