Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x7254…5594 crypto 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,063 (+8%) realized +$988 · open +$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%45W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$556now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$298
7 days+$371
14 days+$1,042
30 days+$1,208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$357
crypto 22% −$172
other 18% +$523
world 2% −$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +7.0% -3.2% 52% 52% +12.9%
≤30d 64 +13.1% +2.3% 53% 50% +3.1%
≤90d 92 +3.1% -6.8% 49% 46% -5.9%
all 92 +3.1% -6.8% 49% 46% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 46% -5.9%
10% -15.7% 38% -14.9%
15% -23.8% 35% -23.1%
20% -31.3% 29% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$100 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$556
Realized+$988
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses45 / 47
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions5
Markets (closed)92 / 100
History coverage34d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 34¢ $70 $146 +$76 (+109%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $130 $131 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $131 $130 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 62¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $80 +$93 +116%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $72 +$56 +78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $76 +$39 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 +$37 +61%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $50 +$163 +324%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 +$7 +55%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $40 +$12 +30%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$242 +237%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$7 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$9 +73%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $160 −$156 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 −$23 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $81 +$120 +148%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$43 +43%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$50 +165%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $49 +$16 +33%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$48 +48%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $44 −$43 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $50 −$6 -11%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 −$48 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $270 −$266 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 −$6 -11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $54 +$23 +42%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$149 +291%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 +$121 +119%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $29 +$83 +291%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $139 +$121 +87%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$237 +237%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 −$87 -88%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $116 −$115 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $200 +$114 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $550 −$345 -63%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $156 −$154 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$153 +100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $99 −$8 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,329 +$737 +56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $708 +$632 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $133 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $131 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 62¢ $101 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $22 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 88¢ $54 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $29 24h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $21 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 24h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $99 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 27h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $51 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $49 42h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 42h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $50 42h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 25¢ $49 42h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $53 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 76¢ $40 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $556.16 · official $556.16 (match) · 322 history records