Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
72 0x7253…0558 sports 188 markets active 3d ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,522 (-9%) realized −$2,489 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%75W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$353est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$390
14 days−$109
30 days−$801
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,616
other 3% −$96
world 0% +$45
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +37.4% +24.3% 60% 60% +35.8%
≤30d 36 -14.7% -22.8% 33% 33% -20.0%
≤90d 124 -10.5% -19.0% 41% 41% -16.1%
all 186 -5.0% -14.1% 40% 40% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 40% -17.7%
10% -22.3% 40% -25.6%
15% -29.8% 40% -32.8%
20% -36.7% 40% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$151 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$2,489
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses75 / 111
Est. fees paid−$353
Open positions2
Markets (closed)186 / 188
History coverage143d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 16¢ 12¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $196 +$183 +93%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $135 +$266 +197%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $198 +$191 +97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $202 +$101 +50%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 01 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $204 +$384 +188%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 30 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 29 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 29 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 28 $202 +$140 +69%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 28 $407 −$214 -52%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 28 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) May 28 $202 +$123 +61%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 27 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 27 $205 +$887 +433%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 26 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $153 −$150 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 22 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $200 +$234 +117%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO5) - Prime League 1st May 21 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League May 20 $204 +$368 +180%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO5) - Circuit May 20 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 20 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 20 $204 +$402 +197%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal May 18 $204 +$384 +188%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 17 $203 +$153 +76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $51 +$134 +262%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $204 +$367 +180%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 15 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P May 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? May 15 $1 +$1 +89%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 14 $203 +$155 +76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 14 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup May 13 $203 +$168 +83%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $51 +$149 +291%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5) May 12 $203 +$148 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 2d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 51¢ $196 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 33¢ $135 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $51 6d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 53¢ $203 6d
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) SELL LOS 100¢ $389 6d
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) BUY LOS 50¢ $198 6d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 21¢ $205 9d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America SELL Fluxo W7M 100¢ $303 9d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America BUY Fluxo W7M 66¢ $202 9d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 57¢ $203 10d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs BUY ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 60¢ $202 12d
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs BUY The Bandits 54¢ $203 14d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit BUY KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas 51¢ $203 15d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY GIANTX 18¢ $205 16d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $203 17d
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY GIANTX 34¢ $204 17d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl BUY Eintracht Spandau 44¢ $203 18d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Sentinels 42¢ $203 18d
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag BUY CCG Esports 29¢ $204 18d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp Blue 23¢ $205 18d
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs BUY Once Upon A Team 39¢ $204 19d
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffs BUY TLN Pirates 19¢ $205 19d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) BUY Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 61¢ $202 20d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $202 20d
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp Blue 20¢ $205 20d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 39¢ $204 21d
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante BUY paiN Gaming Academy 18¢ $205 21d
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs SELL Once Upon A Team 35¢ $183 21d
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs BUY Once Upon A Team 38¢ $204 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.62 · official $46.62 (match) · 274 history records