Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:11:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

72
0x7247…3a16
crypto · 222 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$17 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses93 / 128
Open positions1
Markets (closed)221 / 222
History coverage168d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 221 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$26
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +80%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$14
other 4% +$6
finance 1% −$3
world 1% −$6
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -13.6% -21.8% 49% 37% -12.1%
≤30d 194 -1.5% -10.8% 45% 37% -11.1%
≤90d 217 -6.3% -15.2% 42% 35% -11.2%
all 221 -6.6% -15.5% 42% 35% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 35% -11.6%
10% -23.6% 31% -20.1%
15% -31.0% 28% -27.8%
20% -37.7% 24% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.27 · official $1.27 (match) · 758 history records