Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7244…2aaf crypto 1330 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,545 (-19%) realized −$1,549 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%766W / 749L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day110.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$799
7 days−$846
14 days−$846
30 days−$1,113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$267
other 13% −$18
weather 11% −$60
world 9% −$11
politics 7% −$12
economics 2% −$4
tech 1% −$4
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 -67.3% -70.4% 1% 0% -29.2%
≤30d 1515 -17.2% -25.1% 51% 43% -21.6%
≤90d 1515 -17.2% -25.1% 51% 43% -21.6%
all 1515 -17.2% -25.1% 51% 43% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 43% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 31% -29.1%
15% -38.8% 23% -36.0%
20% -44.8% 23% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$1,549
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses766 / 749
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1515 / 1330
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day110.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 67¢ 70¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Yes 44¢ 41¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 23? No 67¢ 69¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 23? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? No 67¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24? No 65¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 23? No 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? No 64¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? No 62¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 24? Yes 31¢ 35¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 23? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? No 30¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 −$1 -1442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $0 −$4 -3646%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$7 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -78%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $7 −$8 -122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $23 −$24 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? SELL No 61¢ $12 0m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? SELL No 43¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? BUY No 62¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? BUY No 62¢ $12 2m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 43¢ $9 3m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 5m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 8m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? SELL No 83¢ $16 8m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 57¢ $11 8m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 24? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 8m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? SELL No 63¢ $12 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 57¢ $11 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 8m
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 24? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 9m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 59¢ $12 10m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? BUY No 64¢ $13 10m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 84¢ $17 12m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 68¢ $14 12m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 23? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $1 15m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? SELL No 64¢ $3 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.08 · official $84.36 (match) · 3500 history records