Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7243…e409 sports 835 markets active 16d ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$181 (-1%) realized −$181 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%475W / 360L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day57.7pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$134
other 6% +$20
weather 3% +$6
crypto 3% −$112
politics 1% +$17
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 694 +7.2% -3.0% 57% 53% -10.1%
≤90d 835 +3.2% -6.6% 57% 52% -11.3%
all 835 +3.2% -6.6% 57% 52% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 52% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 43% -19.8%
15% -23.7% 35% -27.6%
20% -31.2% 26% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses475 / 360
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions0
Markets (closed)835 / 835
History coverage33d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day57.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 835 Trades
no open positions (275 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Jun 13 $131 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primar Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Jun 13 $30 +$10 +34%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 13 $80 $0 -0%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-4.5) Jun 10 $17 +$14 +79%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman Jun 10 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 10 $47 −$47 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $41 +$40 +99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $20 +$6 +32%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $45 −$7 -17%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $13 +$2 +12%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $7 +$4 +56%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 10 $4 +$1 +21%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $6 +$5 +87%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $25 +$3 +11%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 15.5 Jun 10 $34 −$8 -23%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 10 $20 +$17 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $14 +$13 +94%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $13 +$15 +111%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $3 +$2 +56%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $14 +$11 +78%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $6 +$4 +60%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 10 $10 +$12 +117%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 10 $7 +$4 +62%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $4 +$9 +212%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $4 +$4 +113%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $10 +$11 +109%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5) Jun 10 $10 +$23 +226%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-9.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $14 +$14 +100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $14 −$1 -5%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $23 −$11 -49%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $13 −$8 -64%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 10 $4 +$1 +41%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 10 $20 +$8 +38%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $21 −$4 -20%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 15d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $5 15d
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primar SELL No 51¢ $9 15d
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the SELL No 81¢ $40 15d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL No 80¢ $80 15d
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey BUY Ashleigh Harvey 50¢ $131 18d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman BUY Oman 28¢ $2 18d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman BUY Oman 28¢ $29 18d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman BUY Oman 31¢ $9 18d
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 45¢ $47 18d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $81 18d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 26¢ $2 18d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman BUY Oman 31¢ $0 18d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman BUY Oman 31¢ $2 18d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 81¢ $5 18d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $5 18d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 43¢ $33 18d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $41 18d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 15.5 SELL Under 60¢ $22 18d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 15.5 SELL Under 60¢ $2 18d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 15.5 SELL Under 60¢ $1 18d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 15.5 SELL Under 60¢ $1 18d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 75¢ $20 18d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $17 18d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $14 18d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $6 18d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 47¢ $1 18d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 47¢ $1 18d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 47¢ $1 18d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 15.5 BUY Under 78¢ $34 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2411 history records