Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x7243…8409 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$378 (+1%) realized +$365 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate66%66W / 34L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$675per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$1,704now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$179
7 days+$1,478
14 days+$1,446
30 days+$1,453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$134
world 38% +$943
sports 4% −$484
politics 4% −$580
finance 2% +$115
tech 0% −$28
crypto 0% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +50.8% +36.5% 100% 50% +2.9%
≤30d 41 +9.9% -0.6% 80% 24% -6.4%
≤90d 86 +2.3% -7.4% 70% 24% -9.3%
all 100 +5.5% -4.6% 66% 26% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 26% -9.2%
10% -13.7% 14% -17.9%
15% -22.0% 11% -25.8%
20% -29.7% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,236) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$105 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$1,704
Realized+$365
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses66 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage237d
Avg bet$675
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 85¢ 87¢ $850 $870 +$20 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 84¢ 83¢ $842 $834 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $948 +$137 +14%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $197 +$42 +22%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $709 +$123 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,174 +$30 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $2,552 +$154 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $111 $0 +0%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $152 +$48 +32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2,722 +$72 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $196 +$802 +409%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $1,959 +$69 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,175 +$125 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1,970 +$26 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $89 +$211 +237%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,766 +$111 +6%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $1,751 +$23 +1%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $2,169 +$17 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $96 −$92 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $193 −$186 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $175 −$168 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $140 −$134 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $62 −$60 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $120 −$117 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $855 +$11 +1%
Will the US lose jobs in May? Jun 05 $2,231 +$199 +9%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? Jun 05 $1,236 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 03 $412 −$5 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $59 +$141 +241%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $481 +$47 +10%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $152 +$2 +1%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $1,795 $0 +0%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $197 +$22 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $3,590 +$13 +0%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $67 +$33 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,782 +$18 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $1,767 +$88 +5%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $1,684 +$16 +1%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 23 $514 −$514 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,755 +$45 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 21 $970 +$28 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $822 +$23 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $1,866 +$50 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $1,829 +$37 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $1,795 +$34 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $689 +$10 +2%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $3,006 +$9 +0%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $84 −$26 -31%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $50 +$3 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $1,012 +$45 +4%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 11 $2,196 −$627 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 85¢ $589 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $415 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $427 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 85¢ $67 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 85¢ $194 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $112 16h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 79¢ $13 16h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 16h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $49 16h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $13 16h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $36 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 92¢ $276 30h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 79¢ $79 30h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 78¢ $12 30h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 65¢ $130 39h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 41h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 41h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 41h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 41h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 41h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 67¢ $55 41h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 83¢ $83 47h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 85¢ $510 47h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 84¢ $79 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $102 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $94 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 93¢ $2 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $246 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $82 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,704.50 · official $1,684.50 · 488 history records