Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x723f…007b sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 706d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-8%) realized −$30 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$2
other 37% −$18
crypto 2% −$6
politics 1% −$3
world 1% −$2
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -6.0% -14.9% 83% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 12 -6.0% -14.9% 83% 0% -14.8%
≤90d 15 -24.8% -31.9% 67% 0% -21.6%
all 28 -36.9% -42.9% 43% 7% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 7% -19.3%
10% -48.3% 7% -27.1%
15% -53.3% 7% -34.1%
20% -57.9% 7% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

706d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage706d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) DR Congo 98¢ 98¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Under 97¢ 97¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Cédric Bakambu: 2+ goals No 95¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Yoane Wissa: 2+ assists No 94¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ assists Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ goals Jun 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Kjaer vs Silva Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Struff vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Virtanen vs Martinez Jun 22 $19 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Basilashvili vs. Ymer: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 22 $3 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 7? Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Apr 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 14 $7 +$8 +113%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 07 $7 +$5 +72%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Nov 13 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Oct 16 $1 $0 -18%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Sep 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed cuts rates by 75 basis points in Sept meeting? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Harris debate before election? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will POPCAT reach $1b first? Sep 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana above $160 on August 9? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will TRUMP reach $1b first? Aug 05 $2 $0 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Yoane Wissa: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $19 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $31 1h
Cédric Bakambu: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $19 1h
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) BUY DR Congo 98¢ $31 1h
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) BUY DR Congo 97¢ $6 1h
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $19 23h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 97¢ $5 24h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $19 24h
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ assists BUY No 95¢ $19 24h
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ goals BUY No 96¢ $19 24h
Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $19 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Austria? BUY No 99¢ $20 33h
Struff vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 35h
Basilashvili vs. Ymer: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 100¢ $29 35h
Basilashvili vs. Ymer: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1 35h
Set 1 Winner: Kjaer vs Silva BUY Kjaer 99¢ $20 35h
Set 1 Winner: Virtanen vs Martinez BUY Virtanen 94¢ $19 35h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 83¢ $3 39h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 84¢ $3 78d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 170d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) BUY Spirit 47¢ $7 194d
Ethereum Up or Down on December 7? BUY Up 38¢ $4 198d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1) BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $7 201d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) BUY Astralis 56¢ $13 203d
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? BUY No $0 615d
Ethereum all time high in 2024? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 615d
Ethereum all time high in 2024? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 633d
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? SELL No 15¢ $1 633d
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? BUY No 15¢ $1 656d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.20 · official $106.92 (match) · 64 history records