Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x723b…7302 other 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27 (-7%) realized −$2 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$64
crypto 24% −$31
sports 13% +$41
world 9% −$1
tech 2% $0
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -11.9% -20.3% 37% 34% -15.4%
≤30d 38 -11.9% -20.3% 37% 34% -15.4%
≤90d 43 -18.7% -26.4% 35% 33% -18.9%
all 43 -18.7% -26.4% 35% 33% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 33% -18.9%
10% -33.5% 26% -26.7%
15% -39.9% 21% -33.7%
20% -45.8% 16% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)43 / 48
History coverage38d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -14%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -91%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Hoyoung Roh Jun 16 $2 +$2 +119%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $8 +$1 +18%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$23 +229%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$9 +28%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 15 $7 $0 -4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +272%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$18 +240%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -82%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -85%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 10 $3 +$2 +51%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 19m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $8 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.58 · official $12.58 (match) · 100 history records