Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x723a…518b sports 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$5,427 (-23%) realized −$5,412 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%54W / 44L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$265est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$260
14 days−$5,904
30 days−$5,673
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$5,233
other 24% −$355
crypto 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +47.1% +33.1% 90% 80% +27.5%
≤30d 77 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 55% -28.9%
≤90d 98 -7.9% -16.7% 55% 48% -28.3%
all 98 -7.9% -16.7% 55% 48% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 48% -28.3%
10% -24.7% 36% -35.2%
15% -31.9% 28% -41.4%
20% -38.6% 21% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$181 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$5,412
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses54 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$265
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage32d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Over 46¢ 21¢ $28 $13 −$15 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $14 +$14 +98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi Jun 24 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $14 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $6 +$8 +127%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 +$3 +127%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $217 +$103 +48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $193 +$21 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $116 +$81 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $70 +$30 +43%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 +$30 +147%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $602 −$575 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $872 −$519 -60%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $996 −$748 -75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $4,973 −$3,175 -64%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,890 +$165 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$58 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $8 −$6 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A Jun 13 $3 −$1 -30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$3 -57%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $8 −$3 -37%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $492 −$359 -73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $159 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $252 +$76 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $139 +$112 +81%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $109 +$30 +28%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $543 −$78 -14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,237 −$1,053 -85%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,005 +$187 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $50 +$7 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $506 −$482 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +71%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $52 +$28 +54%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $341 −$327 -96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $534 +$382 +71%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $101 +$82 +81%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $422 +$113 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $401 −$331 -83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $396 +$44 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $28 13m
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $28 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $14 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi BUY 67¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 25h
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 25h
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 25h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $6 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 30h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $321 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $217 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $214 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 90¢ $193 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $197 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $116 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $50 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 7d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 6¢ $24 7d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 88¢ $602 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $353 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 16¢ $247 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 41¢ $0 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $303 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $6 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $71 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $64 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.60 · official $14.10 · 262 history records