Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7239…c6e6 crypto 1200 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 133d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$572 (-3%) realized −$572 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%608W / 591L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$47
14 days−$231
30 days−$431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,487
sports 0% +$5
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 40% -12.2%
≤30d 462 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 43% -15.3%
≤90d 890 -9.6% -18.2% 49% 43% -15.4%
all 1199 -8.4% -17.1% 51% 44% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 44% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 36% -23.6%
15% -32.3% 27% -31.0%
20% -38.9% 21% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$572
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses608 / 591
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1199 / 1200
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 35¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $42 −$31 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$12 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$28 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$21 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $24 −$10 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$25 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$18 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $12 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $9 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $9 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.43 · official $10.43 (match) · 3500 history records