Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:04:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7236…ea53 other 893 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$38,442 (+2%) realized +$33,639 · open +$4,803
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%486W / 423L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,033per market
Trades / day50.7pace
Fees−$10,954est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$204,131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$76,891
sports 47% −$73,785
world 1% +$4,220
crypto 0% +$1,168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -36.6% -42.6% 29% 28% -41.2%
≤30d 359 -8.9% -17.6% 47% 45% -29.1%
≤90d 909 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 52% -16.4%
all 909 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 52% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 52% -16.4%
10% -17.5% 51% -24.4%
15% ← realistic here -25.5% 44% -31.7%
20% -32.8% 36% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$2,816) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,370 vs −$1,904 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$204,131
Realized+$33,639
Unrealized+$4,803
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses486 / 423
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$10,954
Open positions40
Markets (closed)909 / 893
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$2,033
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 909 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $9,240 $9,300 +$60 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 74¢ $6,960 $8,820 +$1,860 (+27%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 70¢ $8,520 $8,460 −$60 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $5,880 $6,060 +$180 (+3%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $3,211 $4,600 +$1,389 (+43%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,992 $3,998 +$6 (+0%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,996 $3,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,996 $3,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,992 $3,998 +$6 (+0%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,992 $3,998 +$6 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,992 $3,998 +$6 (+0%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,996 $3,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,996 $3,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,996 $3,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,996 $3,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,996 $3,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,996 $3,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,996 $3,994 −$2 (-0%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,992 $3,994 +$2 (+0%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,992 $3,982 −$10 (-0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,976 $3,982 +$6 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $3,300 $3,366 +$66 (+2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 53¢ $2,362 $3,337 +$975 (+41%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $2,624 $3,126 +$502 (+19%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $2,787 $2,986 +$198 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 399 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 18 $1,187 −$1,187 -100%
Will CA Talleres win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $1,880 −$1,880 -100%
Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,148 −$1,148 -100%
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $880 −$880 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Jun 18 $3,700 −$3,700 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Jun 18 $2,960 −$2,960 -100%
Atlanta United FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $752 −$752 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $8,681 −$8,681 -100%
Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
Sydney FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,860 −$3,860 -100%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5) Jun 18 $5,280 −$5,280 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,669 −$3,669 -100%
Leicester City FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,760 −$1,760 -100%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) Jun 18 $3,440 −$3,440 -100%
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-04-22? Jun 18 $688 −$688 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-22? Jun 18 $1,088 −$1,088 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $3,040 −$3,040 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $4,720 −$4,720 -100%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $68 −$68 -100%
Sporting CP vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
FC Metz vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,997 −$3,997 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $4,238 −$4,238 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,620 −$3,620 -100%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-04-22? Jun 18 $351 −$351 -100%
Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,760 −$3,760 -100%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,280 −$3,280 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-17? Jun 18 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $4,400 −$4,400 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $229 −$229 -100%
Rio Ave FC vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) Jun 18 $4,880 −$4,880 -100%
New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $624 −$624 -100%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) Jun 18 $4,720 −$4,720 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $2,187 −$2,187 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Jun 18 $2,880 −$2,880 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) Jun 18 $4,283 −$4,283 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $2,320 −$2,320 -100%
Will Pohang Steelers FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 18 $640 −$640 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,840 −$1,840 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Jun 18 $4,020 −$4,020 -100%
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $1,960 −$1,960 -100%
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-04-20? Jun 18 $928 −$928 -100%
Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $3,920 −$3,920 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $8,594 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5,970 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5,850 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $975 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $5,248 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $10,011 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $17 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $162 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $21 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $26 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $12 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $13 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $6 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $12 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $24 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $85 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $85 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $11 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $7 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $81 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204,130.87 · official $204,131.19 (match) · 3500 history records