Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7233…cc09 crypto 16 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-16%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -15.8% -23.8% 44% 31% -27.7%
≤30d 16 -15.8% -23.8% 44% 31% -27.7%
≤90d 16 -15.8% -23.8% 44% 31% -27.7%
all 16 -15.8% -23.8% 44% 31% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 31% -27.7%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 31% -34.6%
15% -37.8% 31% -40.9%
20% -43.9% 31% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records