Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7233…9500 other 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 225L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$20
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$35
sports 25% −$17
culture 7% −$7
politics 7% −$3
crypto 6% −$5
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 234 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 235
History coverage127d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $615 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $202 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $123 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $297 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $132 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $134 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $297 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $854 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $682 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $209 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $238 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $242 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $201 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $266 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $121 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $147 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 08 $363 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 07 $151 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $203 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $306 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $138 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 02 $257 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $307 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 30 $211 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $65 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $676 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 21m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 2h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 4h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 6h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 11h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 12h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 14h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 15h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 26h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 28h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 29h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 30h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 33h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 41h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 43h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 44h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 46h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $57 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 3d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.67 · official $55.67 (match) · 1242 history records