Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:13:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7232…5fa6 crypto 182 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$820 (-9%) realized −$236 · open −$584
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%90W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$330
7 days−$330
14 days−$753
30 days−$753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,340
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +10.8% +0.3% 58% 52% -15.0%
≤30d 173 -3.3% -12.5% 52% 43% -17.7%
≤90d 173 -3.3% -12.5% 52% 43% -17.7%
all 173 -3.3% -12.5% 52% 43% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 43% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 38% -25.6%
15% -28.5% 32% -32.8%
20% -35.5% 25% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$37 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$236
Unrealized−$584
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses90 / 83
Open positions9
Markets (closed)173 / 182
History coverage10d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 52¢ 1¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$99 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $155 +$67 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $256 −$91 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $305 −$13 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $87 +$38 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $302 +$26 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$73 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$44 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $307 −$150 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $255 +$118 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $114 +$65 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$136 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $154 +$102 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $155 −$34 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $175 +$30 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $206 +$111 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$173 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$84 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $509 −$509 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$24 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$15 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$26 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$38 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $102 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $222 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $155 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $151 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $203 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.45 · official $1.45 (match) · 465 history records