Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7232…3838 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+13%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$5
sports 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-67.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -64.1% -67.5% 25% 25% +3.3%
≤30d 4 -64.1% -67.5% 25% 25% +3.3%
≤90d 4 -64.1% -67.5% 25% 25% +3.3%
all 4 -64.1% -67.5% 25% 25% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.5% 25% +3.3%
10% -70.6% 25% -6.6%
15% -73.5% 25% -15.6%
20% -76.1% 0% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 50m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $29 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.54 · official $5.54 (match) · 7 history records