Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
72 0x7232…03ef sports 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$12,977 (+5%) realized +$12,935 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate60%56W / 38L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$2,322per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$877
7 days+$1,768
14 days+$3,070
30 days+$2,510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 46% −$119
sports 24% +$12,678
crypto 13% −$46
other 12% +$476
world 4% −$83
tech 2% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +30.7% +18.2% 49% 49% +49.0%
≤30d 52 +30.8% +18.3% 50% 48% +40.9%
≤90d 62 +27.0% +14.9% 58% 44% +21.4%
all 94 +19.3% +7.9% 60% 30% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.9% 30% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -2.4% 29% -14.1%
15% -11.8% 28% -22.4%
20% -20.5% 28% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,746) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$263 vs −$48 · ×5.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.1 per $1 lost it wins $8.1
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$1,218
Realized+$12,935
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses56 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions18
Markets (closed)94 / 112
History coverage169d
Avg bet$2,322
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $407 $403 −$4 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $290 $299 +$9 (+3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 71¢ 88¢ $142 $176 +$34 (+24%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 36¢ 36¢ $111 $113 +$2 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? No 55¢ 55¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? No 55¢ 55¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 52¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Canada leading at halftime? No 44¢ 44¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mexico 22¢ 22¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $170 +$194 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9 +$12 +134%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $13 +$8 +65%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 +$28 +206%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $276 +$290 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$22 +114%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $9 +$12 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 +$12 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$11 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$16 +307%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +114%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +101%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $76 +$97 +129%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $71 +$98 +140%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $54 +$51 +93%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 +$60 +146%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 −$8 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $52 −$51 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 −$48 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $37 −$37 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$91 +874%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $32 +$69 +216%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $52 +$49 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 +$47 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $47 +$54 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $45 +$56 +124%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 +$70 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $58 −$58 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $103 −$101 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $966 +$1,100 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $661 +$1,303 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $13 26m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $17 27m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 27m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $17 27m
Canada leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $9 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $9 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $9 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $10 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $5 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $12 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $11 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $412 2h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 22¢ $5 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $11 2h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $12 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $113 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $8 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? SELL No 54¢ $11 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $12 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $12 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $11 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 2h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 22¢ $5 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $11 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $9 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $9 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,218.47 · official $1,218.47 (match) · 711 history records