Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7231…c49f crypto 1021 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$528 (-6%) realized −$528 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate51%545W / 520L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$320
7 days−$411
14 days−$520
30 days−$597
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$385
other 6% −$61
sports 1% −$6
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 523 -21.2% -28.7% 53% 13% -15.7%
≤30d 933 -15.4% -23.4% 52% 25% -15.6%
≤90d 1065 -13.4% -21.6% 51% 27% -15.3%
all 1065 -13.4% -21.6% 51% 27% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 27% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 23% -23.4%
15% -36.0% 19% -30.8%
20% -42.2% 16% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$528
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses545 / 520
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1065 / 1021
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1065 Trades
no open positions (314 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -3055%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$8 -158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -621%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -75%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -6067%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -104%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -157%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -82%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -626%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records