Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
72 0x722c…515f other 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$880 (-6%) realized −$858 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%67W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$455
14 days+$413
30 days+$680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$1,938
other 37% +$712
crypto 7% −$47
world 4% −$18
politics 3% +$94
tech 1% +$230
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +33.0% +20.3% 50% 43% +28.4%
≤30d 40 +7.2% -3.0% 38% 35% +14.8%
≤90d 48 +5.0% -5.0% 38% 33% +15.8%
all 194 -6.8% -15.7% 35% 33% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 33% -14.9%
10% -23.8% 32% -23.1%
15% -31.1% 30% -30.5%
20% -37.9% 28% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$59 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$858
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses67 / 127
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)194 / 195
History coverage567d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $145 $123 −$22 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $45 −$19 -43%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $99 +$52 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $199 +$145 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 −$49 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$80 +158%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $104 +$59 +57%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $99 +$4 +4%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $49 +$351 +712%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $74 −$73 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $151 +$72 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $49 −$47 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $361 +$181 +50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 +$98 +354%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$63 +246%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $88 −$71 -80%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $49 +$48 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $52 +$296 +570%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$19 -98%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $178 −$14 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $115 −$4 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 04 $111 +$99 +89%
Will Leinster win? May 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 23 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 22 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $46 +$143 +309%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 24 $9 −$2 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $26 34m
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Panama 88¢ $141 38m
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Panama 88¢ $11 38m
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Panama 58¢ $50 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Panama 56¢ $50 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $45 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $99 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $99 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 28¢ $50 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 2¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 12¢ $13 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $100 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $104 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $99 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $49 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $74 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $149 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $49 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 22¢ $51 9d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $49 9d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $50 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 10d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 10d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 10d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $361 11d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $51 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.14 · official $123.14 (match) · 595 history records