Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x722b…c68b sports 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,588 (-2%) realized −$1,520 · open −$68
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate61%42W / 27L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,474per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$501est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 612d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$1,120
crypto 19% +$1,588
other 18% −$2,493
politics 6% +$223
world 5% +$124
finance 4% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -2.6% -11.9% 59% 52% -9.1%
≤30d 44 -5.1% -14.2% 57% 43% -9.4%
≤90d 55 -0.4% -9.9% 60% 42% -7.5%
all 69 +1.3% -8.4% 61% 41% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 41% -8.9%
10% -17.1% 29% -17.6%
15% -25.1% 23% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$2,491) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$430 vs −$644 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$2,282
Realized−$1,520
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses42 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$501
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage612d
Avg bet$1,474
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $2,350 $2,282 −$68 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $3,304 +$2,051 +62%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,978 −$2,939 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2,016 −$2,000 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $757 −$750 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $632 +$125 +20%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $542 +$594 +109%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $391 −$391 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $710 −$710 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4,587 +$419 +9%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $809 −$784 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$115 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1,019 +$361 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,024 −$130 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1,010 +$162 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $258 −$258 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $4,085 +$1,734 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2,735 −$1,167 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $507 +$120 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1,056 +$40 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $383 +$148 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1,285 +$1,132 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $905 −$632 -70%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2,987 +$468 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $805 +$614 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $3,038 +$754 +25%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,631 +$1,403 +86%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Jun 15 $1,907 −$272 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $86 +$47 +55%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $999 +$630 +63%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 25 $198 −$198 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) May 25 $1,094 −$1,094 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? May 25 $1,472 −$1,472 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5 May 24 $3,300 +$286 +9%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3,154 +$143 +4%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $1,083 +$420 +39%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $1,013 −$996 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $3,024 +$1,711 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $2,947 +$74 +2%
Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5) May 23 $1,640 +$360 +22%
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-1.5) May 23 $0 $0 -3%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score May 23 $920 +$5 +0%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score May 23 $51 −$1 -2%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score May 23 $3 $0 -2%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) May 23 $274 −$6 -2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $234 +$184 +79%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 07 $5,466 +$77 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $307 −$64 -21%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 06 $3,018 +$732 +24%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club end in a draw? May 06 $291 +$306 +105%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11? May 06 $181 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2,380 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $5,355 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $3,304 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $951 43h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $2,027 43h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $2,016 43h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $757 43h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $757 43h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $631 44h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1 44h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $542 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $100 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $859 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $194 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $34 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $21 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $4 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $100 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $2,550 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $85 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $4 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $4 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $487 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,281.75 · official $2,281.75 (match) · 378 history records