Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

72
0x7229…ff73
crypto · 371 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$855 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$914 · open −$58
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,085
Realized+$914
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses204 / 160
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions7
Markets (closed)364 / 371
History coverage19d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day171.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 7 History 364 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$489
7 days+$6
14 days+$842
30 days+$914
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? No 60¢ 62¢ $488 $510 +$22 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? No 68¢ 56¢ $500 $416 −$84 (-17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? No 83¢ 92¢ $88 $99 +$10 (+11%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 58¢ 65¢ $25 $27 +$3 (+11%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 51¢ 38¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-26%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 42¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 65¢ 56¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$112 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$66 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $35 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$76 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$39 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$46 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $71 −$48 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$14 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$19 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$47 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $94 +$125 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$41 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$30 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$61 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$49 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$16 +155%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $508 +$134 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$34 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $59 +$82 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $53 +$158 +301%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $353 +$49 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $49 +$23 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $204 +$68 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +20%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $203 −$203 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $170 +$158 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $203 −$203 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $203 −$203 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $146 +$121 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% +$1,270
sports 7% −$330
weather 2% −$58
other 1% −$13
tech 0% +$3
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$10
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $502 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $24 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $9 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $36 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -4.5% -13.6% 52% 47% -9.4%
≤30d 364 +6.2% -3.9% 56% 51% -2.2%
≤90d 364 +6.2% -3.9% 56% 51% -2.2%
all 364 +6.2% -3.9% 56% 51% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover171.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 51% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 46% -11.6%
15% -21.5% 40% -20.1%
20% -29.2% 31% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,084.53 · official $1,085.01 (match) · 3500 history records