Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7227…41f5 crypto 1368 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$651 (-9%) realized −$646 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%674W / 704L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day99.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$201
14 days−$375
30 days−$519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$473
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 337 -17.1% -25.0% 53% 47% -19.4%
≤30d 1378 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 47% -16.2%
≤90d 1378 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 47% -16.2%
all 1378 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 47% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 47% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 47% -24.2%
15% -32.3% 42% -31.5%
20% -39.0% 36% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$646
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses674 / 704
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1378 / 1368
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day99.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 75¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 73¢ 60¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 62¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 52¢ 45¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 59¢ 36¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 237 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +39%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +39%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 42m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 57m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.90 · official $16.35 · 3500 history records