Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

72 0x7224…ca8a crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$10 (-15%) realized −$10 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate24%5W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)-39.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-14.8%	-22.9%	20%	20%	+75.9%
≤30d	21	-32.7%	-39.1%	24%	24%	-17.6%
≤90d	21	-32.7%	-39.1%	24%	24%	-17.6%
all	21	-32.7%	-39.1%	24%	24%	-17.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-39.1%	24%	-17.6%
10%	-45.0%	24%	-25.4%
15%	-50.3%	19%	-32.7%
20%	-55.2%	19%	-39.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -33% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -14% → late -50% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$2 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.87 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$10

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)24%

Wins / losses5 / 16

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage18d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$14	+326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	May 30	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	May 29	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	May 29	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	May 29	$6	−$1	-16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	May 29	$5	+$1	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	May 29	$10	−$10	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	May 29	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	May 29	$3	−$3	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	May 29	$3	+$7	+221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	May 29	$3	+$8	+249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	May 29	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	May 29	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	May 29	$5	+$5	+91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	May 29	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	May 29	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	May 29	$1	−$1	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Down	15¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$5	16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$8	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$1	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$5	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$6	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$5	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$5	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$5	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$1	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$3	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	SELL Up	25¢	$10	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$3	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$11	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$3	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$5	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$1	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$10	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$1	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$1	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$1	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records