Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x7222…e5e8 crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$358 (+1%) realized +$359 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate92%58W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$528per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$969now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$277
other 13% +$35
economics 9% +$8
finance 8% +$13
tech 4% +$11
world 4% +$11
politics 3% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 17 -0.0% -9.6% 94% 0% -9.2%
all 63 -1.7% -11.1% 92% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 5% -8.6%
10% -19.6% 2% -17.3%
15% -27.4% 2% -25.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$919) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.77 per $1 lost it wins $8.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$969
Realized+$359
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses58 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage266d
Avg bet$528
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $657 $657 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by July 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $313 $312 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 27 $422 +$3 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 23 $138 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $954 +$7 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $180 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Jun 06 $137 +$1 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $129 +$1 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $135 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? May 25 $950 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $948 +$3 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 06 $838 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 29 $108 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 29 $833 +$6 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 17 $105 +$3 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 08 $109 −$12 -11%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 08 $734 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 08 $837 +$3 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 03 $944 +$2 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Phantom launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $928 +$8 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 10 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $919 +$7 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 02 $704 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 27 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Feb 25 $596 +$8 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 21 $71 +$28 +39%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 17 $454 +$10 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 30 $903 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 27 $902 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 27 $895 +$7 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $891 +$3 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Jan 03 $784 +$20 +3%
Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31? Dec 19 $77 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $689 +$104 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 03 $74 +$3 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Nov 23 $68 +$6 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 18 $841 +$72 +9%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 16 $108 +$3 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $183 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 13 $66 −$7 -11%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 07 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Solana reach $270 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $830 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 01 $290 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 31? Nov 01 $914 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 31 $1,577 +$13 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 30 $510 +$18 +4%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Oct 21 $1,151 +$22 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,600 on October 17? Oct 16 $1,150 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on October 15? Oct 16 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $658 1h
Trump out as President by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $89 1h
Trump out as President by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $89 1h
Trump out as President by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $135 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $425 11h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $139 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $114 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $117 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $422 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $181 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $241 17d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $180 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $128 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 20d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $138 21d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $138 21d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $137 23d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Detroit Tigers 100¢ $130 25d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 99¢ $129 25d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 96¢ $137 25d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 95¢ $135 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $135 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $954 30d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? SELL No 100¢ $171 34d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? SELL No 100¢ $216 34d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? SELL No 100¢ $237 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $968.59 · official $968.59 (match) · 204 history records