Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x721b…5b7a crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$130 · open −$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day151.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$130
other 9% +$40
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -23.0% -30.3% 50% 47% -8.1%
≤30d 34 -23.0% -30.3% 50% 47% -8.1%
≤90d 34 -23.0% -30.3% 50% 47% -8.1%
all 34 -23.0% -30.3% 50% 47% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.3% 47% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -37.0% 35% -16.9%
15% -43.1% 26% -25.0%
20% -48.7% 12% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$130
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)34 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day151.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $175 +$23 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$14 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$21 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $66 +$40 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$23 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $73 −$20 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$24 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$16 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$19 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $72 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$21 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$22 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$70 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $41 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.48 · official $83.48 (match) · 153 history records