Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:31:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x721a…9295 weather 818 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (695 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19,850 (-109%) realized −$19,410 · open −$440
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate19%112W / 479L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day695.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,609now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% −$661
other 30% −$807
politics 15% −$570
world 6% −$194
sports 2% −$62
tech 1% −$11
economics 1% −$44
finance 1% −$22
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (695 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 591 -12.3% -20.7% 19% 7% -21.8%
≤30d 591 -12.3% -20.7% 19% 7% -21.8%
≤90d 591 -12.3% -20.7% 19% 7% -21.8%
all 591 -12.3% -20.7% 19% 7% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover695.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 7% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 5% -29.3%
15% -35.2% 4% -36.1%
20% -41.6% 4% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,609
Realized−$19,410
Unrealized−$440
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses112 / 479
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions322
Markets (closed)591 / 818
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day695.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 322 History 591 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-04 House seat? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $93 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Will Konnor Griffin win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? No 97¢ 88¢ $97 $88 −$9 (-10%)
Will the Republican Party win the NY-18 House seat? No 91¢ 90¢ $68 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 63¢ 60¢ $52 $49 −$3 (-6%)
Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-4%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 60¢ 54¢ $51 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? No 50¢ 44¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-11%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 59¢ $27 $26 −$2 (-7%)
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 74¢ $27 $25 −$3 (-10%)
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 80¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 50¢ 44¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-12%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? No 40¢ 40¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by July 31, 2026? No 89¢ 93¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? Yes 44¢ 41¢ $21 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-31 House seat? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026? No 42¢ 22¢ $36 $18 −$18 (-49%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 28? No 75¢ 94¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 28? No 77¢ 100¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? No 79¢ 91¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 19.5¢+? No 86¢ 81¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-5%)
Will Lime's market cap be less than $1.4B at market close on IPO day? No 85¢ 80¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Prologis (PLD) Q2 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.60? Jun 28 $13 −$5 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 30? Jun 28 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 29? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 29? Jun 28 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Patrick Von Dohlen win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election? Jun 28 $8 −$7 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 29? Jun 28 $28 $0 +1%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 28 $19 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $10 $0 -4%
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $22B and $25B at market clo Jun 28 $21 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 29? Jun 28 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 30? Jun 28 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 29? Jun 28 $66 −$8 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 28? Jun 28 $11 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 28? Jun 28 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 28? Jun 28 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $6 −$3 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 29? Jun 28 $16 +$2 +10%
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by July 31? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caled Jun 28 $28 −$17 -61%
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2 Jun 28 $28 −$15 -53%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 25? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Iran reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 −$1 -18%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 28? Jun 28 $106 −$14 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 27? Jun 28 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 25? Jun 28 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 26? Jun 28 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 25? Jun 28 $3 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 25? Jun 28 $5 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? Jun 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? Jun 28 $14 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? Jun 28 $19 +$3 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 28? Jun 28 $13 −$3 -19%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 28? Jun 28 $37 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 25? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 22 2026 Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? Jun 28 $25 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? Jun 28 $7 −$1 -11%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? Jun 28 $4 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? Jun 28 $16 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Prologis (PLD) Q2 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.60? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 1m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 29? SELL No 91¢ $19 3m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 30? SELL No 66¢ $14 6m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 11m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 30? BUY No 67¢ $14 14m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 30? SELL No 64¢ $13 15m
Will Patrick Von Dohlen win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 17m
Will Prologis (PLD) Q2 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.60? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 18m
Will Prologis (PLD) Q2 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.70? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 18m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? BUY No 40¢ $21 21m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 22m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 28? SELL No 66¢ $24 24m
Will Bending Spoons not IPO before September 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 26m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 29? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 29m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 28? SELL No 66¢ $3 30m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 28? SELL No 66¢ $7 30m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $17 35m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 78¢ $41 40m
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 23 to June BUY No 63¢ $27 40m
Amazon 2026 capex above $210B? SELL No 16¢ $3 46m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 3 SELL Yes 3¢ $1 51m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $19 52m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 59m
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $22B and $25B at market clo SELL No 90¢ $19 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 28? BUY No 74¢ $39 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 3 BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 3 BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 29? SELL No 68¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,609.34 · official $1,599.29 (match) · 3500 history records