Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x7217…8b49 crypto 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$425 (+5%) realized +$425 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%97W / 70L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$542
7 days+$542
14 days+$542
30 days+$508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$432
tech 1% −$3
finance 1% −$31
politics 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +17.4% +6.2% 82% 76% +2.5%
≤30d 22 +7.2% -3.0% 73% 68% +1.4%
≤90d 23 +2.6% -7.2% 70% 65% +1.3%
all 167 +7.0% -3.2% 58% 53% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 53% -5.0%
10% -12.5% 43% -14.1%
15% -20.9% 27% -22.4%
20% -28.7% 16% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$425
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses97 / 70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)167 / 167
History coverage166d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 167 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $517 +$99 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $400 +$80 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $137 +$47 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $350 +$40 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $335 −$333 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $290 +$30 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $550 +$104 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $414 +$127 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $251 +$168 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $188 +$62 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $152 +$36 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $153 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $113 +$40 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $46 +$13 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $105 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $75 +$30 +40%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 +$4 +43%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $38 +$22 +58%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $26 −$13 -50%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $26 −$23 -88%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 19 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 19 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 02 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 28 $27 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 28 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 28 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 28 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 28 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 28 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 28 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 28 $20 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 26 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 23 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 23 $9 +$12 +138%
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis Jan 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 22 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 22 $20 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Jan 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 22 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 22 $40 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 22 $40 −$26 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 22 $11 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $517 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 652 history records