Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7216…cb34 world 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,356 (-24%) realized −$2,300 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%27W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days+$319
14 days+$319
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$2,284
other 7% +$90
sports 2% +$208
finance 2% +$48
politics 1% −$50
economics 1% −$75
culture 0% −$13
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -9.6% -18.2% 36% 36% +30.5%
≤30d 27 -20.8% -28.3% 33% 30% -13.9%
≤90d 35 -27.3% -34.3% 31% 29% -17.5%
all 116 -30.3% -37.0% 23% 22% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.0% 22% -32.0%
10% -43.0% 20% -38.5%
15% -48.5% 18% -44.4%
20% -53.6% 16% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$55 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$523
Realized−$2,300
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses27 / 89
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)116 / 122
History coverage277d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $353 $342 −$12 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 59¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $53 $33 −$19 (-37%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $5 −$8 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$32 +32%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 +$25 +244%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $140 +$57 +41%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$11 +46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $91 +$41 +46%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$71 +140%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$74 +146%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 +$200 +400%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 12 $216 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 31 $260 −$242 -93%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? May 31 $19 −$19 -96%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? May 31 $112 −$111 -99%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 30 $21 −$13 -62%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? May 26 $45 −$36 -82%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? May 16 $99 +$160 +162%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? Apr 01 $255 −$255 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ahmad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? Mar 29 $196 +$48 +24%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Mar 21 $100 +$95 +95%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $23 −$22 -95%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $584 −$584 -100%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31? Mar 03 $490 −$463 -94%
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $733 +$504 +69%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by January 31? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? Mar 02 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $401 −$231 -58%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $258 +$36 +14%
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $100 +$101 +101%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Feb 27 $423 −$191 -45%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? Feb 27 $162 −$162 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 20h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? SELL Yes 36¢ $35 20h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 3¢ $37 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $97 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $56 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 24h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 28h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 35h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $91 47h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 47h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 47h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $523.17 · official $523.66 (match) · 513 history records