Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7210…521f crypto 570 markets active 1h ago coverage 759d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+0%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%309W / 261L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$212
7 days+$59
14 days−$150
30 days−$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$428
other 41% −$297
crypto 16% −$161
politics 2% +$74
weather 0% −$64
world 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 289 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 37% -8.7%
≤30d 494 -3.0% -12.2% 54% 43% -11.1%
≤90d 569 -3.0% -12.3% 54% 45% -10.1%
all 570 -3.0% -12.2% 54% 45% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 45% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 33% -18.4%
15% -28.3% 24% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 16% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$24 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

759d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses309 / 261
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)570 / 570
History coverage759d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 570 Trades
no open positions (109 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $69 +$30 +44%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $39 +$43 +113%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $48 +$12 +24%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $148 −$39 -26%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $129 +$67 +52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $8 +$1 +18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $120 −$119 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $45 −$45 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $31 +$14 +43%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $92 −$45 -50%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $80 −$79 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $69 −$68 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$3 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$9 -24%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$3 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$11 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$6 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$15 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $39 47m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $69 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 39¢ $109 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $48 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 51¢ $51 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 51¢ $97 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $120 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 65¢ $9 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $50 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $70 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $12 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 84¢ $8 10h
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $5 12h
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $5 12h
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $5 12h
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $10 12h
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $10 12h
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $10 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $31 23h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 84¢ $40 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Under 43¢ $44 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $92 27h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $80 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $69 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2179 history records