Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
72 0x720e…17b0 crypto 1145 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (196 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$95,825 (-55%) realized −$95,909 · open +$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate89%1007W / 128L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day196.5pace
Fees−$868est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,440now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$1,801
sports 39% −$14,692
other 15% +$1,641
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (196 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 420 +17.4% +6.2% 82% 14% -17.1%
≤30d 1135 +7.4% -2.9% 89% 9% -17.6%
≤90d 1135 +7.4% -2.9% 89% 9% -17.6%
all 1135 +7.4% -2.9% 89% 9% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover196.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 9% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 6% -25.5%
15% -20.6% 4% -32.7%
20% -28.4% 3% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$268 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1,440
Realized−$95,909
Unrealized+$84
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1007 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$868
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1135 / 1145
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$152
Trades / day196.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $418 $507 +$89 (+21%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $456 $453 −$3 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $456 $452 −$4 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 48¢ 52¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $148 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $759 −$54 -7%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $397 +$103 +26%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $188 +$12 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +10%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 16? Jun 17 $55 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $304 +$225 +74%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,205 +$224 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $47 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$2 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $55 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $301 +$52 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $120 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$6 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $145 +$13 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$105 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $79 +$40 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$11 -42%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$10 -39%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$14 +51%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$2 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $122 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$10 -38%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $98 −$1 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$25 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $147 1m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 69¢ $505 14m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $853 17m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 82¢ $704 36m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 19¢ $1 37m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $3 38m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $1 38m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $1 38m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $1 38m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $1 38m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $1 38m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $1 38m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $18 38m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $1 38m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $4 38m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $1 38m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $1 38m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $18 38m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $115 41m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 41m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $346 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $306 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,439.83 · official $1,938.81 · 3500 history records