Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x720d…3272 crypto 329 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1838 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,824 (-5%) realized −$2,832 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate22%176W / 632L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day1838.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$530
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1838 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-61.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 808 -57.8% -61.8% 22% 17% -20.1%
≤30d 808 -57.8% -61.8% 22% 17% -20.1%
≤90d 808 -57.8% -61.8% 22% 17% -20.1%
all 808 -57.8% -61.8% 22% 17% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1838.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.8% 17% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -65.5% 14% -27.8%
15% -68.8% 12% -34.7%
20% -71.9% 9% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$34 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized−$2,832
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses176 / 632
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)808 / 329
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$177
Trades / day1838.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 808 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 27¢ 60¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+120%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $0 +$1 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $191 −$191 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $16 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $79 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $48 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $19 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $36 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $12 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.67 · official $277.33 · 3500 history records