Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x720c…662e sports 215 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$236 (-7%) realized −$236 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%104W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$88
14 days+$108
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$187
other 29% −$50
world 1% −$4
politics 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -14.1% -22.3% 45% 36% +11.9%
≤30d 49 -9.0% -17.7% 45% 41% -19.7%
≤90d 99 -12.3% -20.6% 47% 43% -26.6%
all 212 -11.1% -19.6% 49% 44% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 44% -16.2%
10% -27.3% 42% -24.2%
15% -34.3% 39% -31.5%
20% -40.7% 33% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$236
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses104 / 108
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 215
History coverage186d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions (98 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $25 +$33 +133%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $33 −$32 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $12 −$3 -26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $100 +$109 +109%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $46 +$4 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$10 +100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $14 +$12 +91%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $11 +$3 +28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 $0 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $6 +$4 +64%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$18 +141%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $8 +$8 +95%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 +$4 +176%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $14 +$3 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $6 +$2 +33%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $2 +$5 +216%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $2 +$4 +172%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 06 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -97%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $13 −$12 -91%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $16 −$1 -8%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $17 +$13 +81%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa end in May 30 $4 +$1 +15%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $21 +$15 +73%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $17 +$14 +83%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $7 +$5 +76%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Scor May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? May 24 $46 −$4 -9%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score May 23 $11 +$7 +70%
Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to Score May 23 $7 −$7 -99%
Mexico vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: Both Teams to Score May 21 $9 −$3 -28%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 4.5 May 15 $11 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea R BUY 23¢ $5 36m
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $58 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $3 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $4 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 30¢ $9 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 40¢ $12 6h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $26 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $100 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 17¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $8 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 59¢ $12 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 36¢ $15 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $4 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: S BUY 19¢ $1 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $50 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 92¢ $25 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 92¢ $12 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 92¢ $9 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 5d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 82¢ $26 5d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 43¢ $14 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $2 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 59¢ $13 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $0 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $6 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $5.15 · 427 history records