Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:20:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x720b…37f6 world 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8,202 (-5%) realized −$8,120 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate59%63W / 43L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,411per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$5,182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$606
7 days−$1,067
14 days−$1,034
30 days+$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$8,372
other 7% +$439
politics 5% −$2,143
economics 3% −$690
sports 2% +$1,309
finance 1% +$72
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +1.6% -8.1% 48% 24% -13.9%
≤30d 29 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 24% -8.7%
≤90d 60 +4.8% -5.2% 62% 33% -5.6%
all 106 +0.0% -9.5% 59% 26% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 26% -16.7%
10% -18.2% 9% -24.7%
15% -26.1% 4% -32.0%
20% -33.3% 4% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$1,402) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$384 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$5,182
Realized−$8,120
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses63 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions14
Markets (closed)106 / 120
History coverage202d
Avg bet$1,411
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 85¢ 85¢ $2,154 $2,158 +$4 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $894 $897 +$2 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $656 $661 +$5 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $503 $504 +$1 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 71¢ 66¢ $364 $341 −$23 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $379 $305 −$74 (-19%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $164 $164 −$0 (-0%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 91¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 94¢ 95¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $17 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,021 +$123 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $164 −$36 -22%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $79 −$40 -51%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $292 +$226 +77%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $2,495 −$78 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $968 +$22 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,220 +$177 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,313 +$297 +23%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $138 −$25 -18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 16 $571 +$22 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $608 −$82 -14%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $84 +$142 +170%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $262 −$9 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $1,647 +$237 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,754 −$1,112 -63%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $921 +$27 +3%
US recession by end of 2026? Jun 13 $4,391 −$690 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $38 −$8 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $1,199 −$426 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $2,054 +$181 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $298 −$15 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $100 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $792 +$34 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $4,757 +$604 +13%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $16 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $4,638 +$98 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2,849 +$654 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $1,618 +$30 +2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $21 −$12 -57%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $967 −$63 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 11 $1,097 +$134 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? May 09 $80 +$96 +120%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 08 $3 +$1 +34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 29 $1,389 +$123 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 25 $672 +$34 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $4,557 −$133 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $3,487 +$409 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $395 −$57 -14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $215 +$20 +10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 21 $2,951 +$986 +33%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 17 $525 −$133 -25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 17 $631 −$12 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 07 $326 −$306 -94%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 05 $353 +$6 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Apr 05 $201 +$33 +16%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 05 $168 +$29 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 05 $61 −$3 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 05 $2,350 +$119 +5%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $734 −$35 -5%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 04 $1,664 +$200 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $138 1h
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $108 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,144 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,144 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,021 1h
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 83¢ $1,034 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $987 1h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 84¢ $59 7h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $39 8h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $39 8h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $79 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $79 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $125 8h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $125 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $518 10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $517 10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $201 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $202 10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $90 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $91 10h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 84¢ $990 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $990 26h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $968 26h
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 83¢ $969 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $857 28h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $150 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,181.65 · official $5,181.65 (match) · 1735 history records