Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x720a…40f1 world 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,856 (-6%) realized −$1,935 · open +$79
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,121per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$402
14 days+$613
30 days+$1,729
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$1,457
politics 33% +$615
other 11% −$1,102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +15.4% +4.4% 100% 100% +4.4%
≤30d 3 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 67% +3.4%
≤90d 9 -9.6% -18.2% 78% 44% -12.0%
all 11 -18.4% -26.2% 64% 36% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 36% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -33.2% 18% -24.1%
15% -39.7% 0% -31.5%
20% -45.6% 0% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$411 vs −$1,225 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$1,189
Realized−$1,935
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage214d
Avg bet$2,121
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 95¢ $591 $696 +$105 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 50¢ $418 $394 −$25 (-6%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $2,615 +$402 +15%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $6,045 +$211 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $3,468 +$1,116 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $1,000 +$250 +25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 03 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 03 $6,595 +$597 +9%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 22 $1,167 +$228 +20%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 21 $1,095 +$70 +6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 21 $70 −$68 -98%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour? Nov 25 $1,000 −$471 -47%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 25 $1,248 −$859 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $100 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 100¢ $1,505 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 86¢ $2,615 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $229 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $235 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $188 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $205 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $400 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $891 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $100 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $76 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $207 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $719 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $755 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $10 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $34 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $16 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $46 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $12 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $28 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $977 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $1 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $2 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $2 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $2 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $1 15d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $1 15d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $1 15d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $1 15d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,189.20 · official $1,189.20 (match) · 141 history records