Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x720a…ca06 sports 148 markets active 4d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate30%44W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day121.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1
other 13% −$1
crypto 9% −$8
world 8% +$2
weather 6% −$4
finance 5% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 +3.0% -6.8% 30% 14% -16.8%
≤30d 148 +3.0% -6.8% 30% 14% -16.8%
≤90d 148 +3.0% -6.8% 30% 14% -16.8%
all 148 +3.0% -6.8% 30% 14% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 14% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 9% -24.8%
15% -23.9% 6% -32.0%
20% -31.3% 6% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses44 / 104
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day121.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +152%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -50%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -13%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 11 $1 $0 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $1 $0 -16%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -21%
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +72%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +28%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +95%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up $3 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 4d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 78¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality $3 4d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? SELL No $0 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 66¢ $1 5d
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? SELL No 18¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $1 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 95¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 96¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 62¢ $1 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 79¢ $3 5d
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? BUY No 20¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 311 history records