trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | No | 85¢ | 94¢ | $8,500 | $9,433 | +$933 (+11%) |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $3,001 | $3,139 | +$138 (+5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $1 | $0 | -14% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | May 08 | $2,000 | +$875 | +44% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | May 08 | $1,000 | +$252 | +25% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? | Apr 24 | $1,000 | −$740 | -74% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 11 | $14,200 | +$921 | +6% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? | Mar 25 | $500 | −$416 | -83% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Mar 23 | $1,500 | +$1,703 | +114% |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Mar 15 | $500 | +$47 | +9% |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Mar 14 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 0% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -5.5% | -14.5% | 0% | 0% | -14.6% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 42% | 25% | +2.0% |
| all | 12 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 42% | 25% | +2.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.2% | 25% | +2.0% |
| 10% | -17.0% | 25% | -7.7% |
| 15% | -25.0% | 17% | -16.7% |
| 20% | -32.3% | 8% | -24.8% |