Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:48:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x7207…b2b8 sports 155 markets active 5d ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$161 (-11%) realized −$161 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%69W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$154
other 10% +$27
culture 6% −$1
world 5% +$2
politics 3% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +62.8% +47.3% 33% 33% +117.4%
≤30d 3 +62.8% +47.3% 33% 33% +117.4%
≤90d 5 -2.3% -11.6% 20% 20% +8.7%
all 155 -7.1% -15.9% 45% 44% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 44% -19.0%
10% -24.0% 41% -26.8%
15% -31.3% 33% -33.8%
20% -38.1% 26% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses69 / 86
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage382d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$19 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 11 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jan 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jan 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 10 $5 $0 -4%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Jan 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Pelicans vs. Wizards Jan 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jan 08 $4 +$3 +79%
Magic vs. Nets Jan 08 $4 +$3 +85%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Magic vs. Wizards Jan 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jan 06 $4 +$3 +64%
Bulls vs. Celtics Jan 06 $9 +$2 +24%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Jan 05 $4 +$5 +122%
Pelicans vs. Heat Jan 05 $4 +$1 +35%
Timberwolves vs. Wizards Jan 05 $6 +$1 +25%
Thunder vs. Suns Jan 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Jazz vs. Warriors Jan 04 $4 −$4 -96%
76ers vs. Knicks Jan 04 $4 +$6 +144%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Jan 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jan 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunder vs. Warriors Jan 03 $4 +$1 +28%
Hornets vs. Bucks Jan 03 $4 +$2 +47%
Rockets vs. Nets Jan 02 $10 +$2 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Micallef vs. Elliott Sep 28 $5 $0 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Carolina vs. Montague Sep 27 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes Sep 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Sep 22 $16 +$8 +48%
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Sep 21 $5 −$3 -57%
UFC Fight Night: Stirling vs. Bellato Sep 18 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Jenkins vs. Taveras Sep 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Sep 07 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Sep 07 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Sep 07 $6 −$3 -48%
UFC Fight Night: Oki vs. Jones Sep 07 $5 +$4 +82%
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho Sep 07 $5 +$6 +113%
UFC Fight Night: Tavares vs. Bryczek Sep 06 $10 +$9 +94%
UFC Fight Night: Pitbull vs. Keita Sep 06 $5 +$2 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Saint Denis vs. Ruffy Sep 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Dodgers vs. Pirates Sep 05 $8 +$9 +113%
Wings vs. Valkyries Sep 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Lynx vs. Aces Sep 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Reds Sep 04 $5 +$3 +67%
Phillies vs. Brewers Sep 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Orioles vs. Padres Sep 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Mets vs. Tigers Sep 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Phillies vs. Brewers Sep 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 18¢ $3 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $3 5d
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Esteban Ribovics 34¢ $5 67d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca BUY Azamat Murzakanov 69¢ $5 67d
Clippers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 69¢ $5 159d
Heat vs. Pacers BUY Heat 73¢ $5 159d
Heat vs. Bulls SELL Heat 66¢ $5 159d
Thunder vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 37¢ $4 160d
Pelicans vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 46¢ $4 160d
Heat vs. Bulls BUY Heat 69¢ $5 161d
Magic vs. Nets BUY Magic 54¢ $4 162d
Raptors vs. Hornets BUY Raptors 56¢ $4 162d
Cavaliers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 34¢ $4 162d
Magic vs. Wizards BUY Magic 72¢ $6 162d
Bulls vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 81¢ $9 164d
Hawks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 61¢ $4 164d
Grizzlies vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 45¢ $4 164d
Timberwolves vs. Wizards BUY Timberwolves 80¢ $2 165d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 77¢ $4 165d
Pelicans vs. Heat BUY Heat 74¢ $4 165d
Timberwolves vs. Wizards BUY Timberwolves 80¢ $4 165d
Jazz vs. Warriors SELL Jazz $0 165d
Jazz vs. Warriors BUY Jazz 49¢ $4 165d
Rockets vs. Mavericks BUY Rockets 75¢ $4 166d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 76¢ $4 166d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY 76ers 41¢ $4 166d
Hornets vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 68¢ $4 167d
Thunder vs. Warriors BUY Thunder 78¢ $4 167d
Rockets vs. Nets BUY Rockets 82¢ $10 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 291 history records