Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7205…8e0a sports 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$371 (-1%) realized −$474 · open +$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%188W / 77L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$415est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$415
14 days−$516
30 days−$935
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$509
crypto 23% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -3.8% -12.9% 48% 41% -17.8%
≤30d 165 -3.1% -12.4% 69% 39% -12.6%
≤90d 255 -0.2% -9.7% 71% 44% -10.6%
all 265 -0.5% -10.0% 71% 43% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 43% -10.9%
10% -18.6% 30% -19.4%
15% -26.5% 20% -27.2%
20% -33.7% 14% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$98 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized−$474
Unrealized+$103
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses188 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$415
Open positions1
Markets (closed)265 / 266
History coverage98d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 75¢ 98¢ $347 $450 +$103 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $383 +$81 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $206 −$29 -14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $97 +$51 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $417 −$113 -27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $121 +$89 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $131 +$55 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -74%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $215 −$180 -84%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $112 +$69 +61%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $41 +$73 +180%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $93 −$25 -26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $184 −$122 -66%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $865 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $113 +$70 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $317 −$130 -41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $24 −$12 -49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $72 −$11 -15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $185 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $156 −$138 -88%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $95 +$71 +75%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $138 −$104 -75%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $81 −$50 -62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $64 −$61 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $151 −$151 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $152 +$63 +41%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $81 +$71 +88%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $68 +$12 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $42 +$26 +63%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $141 −$62 -44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $407 −$136 -33%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $176 +$172 +98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $96 +$76 +78%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $124 −$112 -90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $253 −$35 -14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $109 +$50 +46%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $59 −$56 -95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $36 −$34 -94%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $54 −$18 -33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $177 −$83 -47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $119 +$17 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $188 +$66 +35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $151 +$39 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $161 +$52 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $157 +$8 +5%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $99 +$58 +59%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $81 +$18 +23%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $36 −$26 -72%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $294 7m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $38 12m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $15 12m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $345 17m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $11 22m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $91 22m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $28 22m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $28 22m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $90 22m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $1 23m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $5 23m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $17 23m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $20 23m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $295 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $247 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 90¢ $248 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $216 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 68¢ $216 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $166 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $33 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $16 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $5 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $5 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 24¢ $59 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $70 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $75 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $148 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $97 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $97 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.65 · official $403.53 · 1423 history records