Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7201…b3dd other 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%19W / 228L
Whale WR9%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$27
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
sports 22% −$20
politics 10% −$7
economics 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$5
culture 4% −$5
world 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 9% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses19 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)9%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage133d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $310 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $315 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $364 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $965 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $725 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $135 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $294 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $399 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $633 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $430 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $140 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $188 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $614 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $232 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $601 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $206 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $69 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $943 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $228 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $219 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $234 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $626 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $939 −$2 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $243 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $167 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $485 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $456 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $322 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $583 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $302 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $153 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $709 −$4 -1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $289 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $562 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $74 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $65 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $65 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 4h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 6h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 7h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 9h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $65 10h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $65 11h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $65 19h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $65 21h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 24h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $65 28h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 29h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $66 32h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $66 33h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 35h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 37h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $66 38h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $66 39h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $66 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $66 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $67 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1368 history records