Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7201…daa7 other 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,484 (-16%) realized −$1,482 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate73%43W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$633now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$621
7 days−$1,540
14 days−$1,529
30 days−$1,504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1,429
crypto 21% +$4
world 9% −$175
tech 9% +$13
politics 5% −$1
sports 4% +$82
finance 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -21.0% -28.5% 65% 32% -37.9%
≤30d 57 -9.8% -18.3% 72% 32% -27.2%
≤90d 59 -7.7% -16.5% 73% 34% -27.2%
all 59 -7.7% -16.5% 73% 34% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 34% -27.2%
10% -24.5% 24% -34.1%
15% -31.8% 15% -40.5%
20% -38.5% 7% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$110 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$633
Realized−$1,482
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses43 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)59 / 72
History coverage32d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $210 $209 −$1 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $136 $134 −$2 (-1%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$24 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $65 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $200 −$186 -93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $229 +$5 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,034 −$1,034 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $156 +$54 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$45 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $978 +$15 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $685 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $201 +$2 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$6 +43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 11 $21 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $230 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,514 +$1 +0%
Will voter turnout be between 85% and 90% in the 2026 Maltese general Jun 01 $100 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$2 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $300 +$4 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 31 $100 +$2 +2%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $224 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 47¢ $5 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 14h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 100¢ $20 26h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 26h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $14 31h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 98¢ $300 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $70 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $234 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 93¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 2d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $201 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 99¢ $126 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $632.81 · official $632.81 (match) · 190 history records