Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7200…9299 sports 558 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,052 (-3%) realized −$18,932 · open −$3,120
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate72%274W / 107L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,316per market
Trades / day40.6pace
Fees−$11,031est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$10,700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4,282
14 days−$56,720
30 days−$29,919
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$9,113
other 2% −$3,130
crypto 0% +$470
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +70.9% +54.6% 83% 83% -91.9%
≤30d 72 +51.7% +37.3% 72% 49% -18.4%
≤90d 381 +13.1% +2.3% 72% 36% -10.9%
all 381 +13.1% +2.3% 72% 36% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.3% 36% -10.9%
10% -7.5% 29% -19.4%
15% ← realistic here -16.4% 24% -27.2%
20% -24.6% 21% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$926) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$298 vs −$860 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$10,700
Realized−$18,932
Unrealized−$3,120
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses274 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$11,031
Open positions176
Markets (closed)381 / 558
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$1,316
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 176 History 381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jovo Lukić: 3+ goals No 99¢ 65¢ $715 $470 −$245 (-34%)
Noah Okafor: 3+ goals No 99¢ 59¢ $692 $415 −$277 (-40%)
Ali Azaizeh: 3+ goals No 100¢ 99¢ $362 $358 −$3 (-1%)
Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ goals No 99¢ 52¢ $637 $334 −$302 (-47%)
Patrick Wimmer: 3+ goals No 99¢ 99¢ $296 $294 −$2 (-1%)
Fiston Mayele: 3+ goals No 99¢ 99¢ $261 $262 +$1 (+0%)
Ali Olwan: 3+ goals No 99¢ 98¢ $246 $243 −$3 (-1%)
Mousa Ta'mari: 3+ goals No 99¢ 99¢ $223 $222 −$0 (-0%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 51¢ 54¢ $161 $169 +$8 (+5%)
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Senegal 96¢ 97¢ $144 $146 +$2 (+2%)
Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals No 98¢ 55¢ $250 $141 −$110 (-44%)
Theo Bongonda: 2+ goals No 98¢ 68¢ $200 $140 −$60 (-30%)
Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals No 99¢ 90¢ $145 $133 −$12 (-8%)
José Fajardo: 3+ goals No 99¢ 90¢ $144 $131 −$13 (-9%)
Yusuf Abdurisag: 2+ goals No 98¢ 70¢ $180 $129 −$52 (-29%)
Adil Boulbina: 3+ goals No 99¢ 98¢ $123 $122 −$2 (-1%)
Brandon Thomas-Asante: 3+ goals No 99¢ 71¢ $167 $120 −$47 (-28%)
Gaël Kakuta: 2+ goals No 99¢ 99¢ $116 $116 +$0 (+0%)
Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals No 99¢ 98¢ $113 $113 −$1 (-1%)
David Møller Wolfe: 2+ goals No 99¢ 98¢ $112 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Prince Adu Kwabena: 3+ goals No 99¢ 71¢ $153 $110 −$43 (-28%)
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ goals No 99¢ 71¢ $153 $110 −$43 (-28%)
Abdul Fatawu Issahaku: 3+ goals No 99¢ 71¢ $153 $110 −$43 (-28%)
Kwasi Sibo: 2+ goals No 99¢ 67¢ $160 $108 −$52 (-32%)
Cecilio Waterman: 3+ goals No 99¢ 71¢ $144 $103 −$40 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $28 +$24 +87%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $28 +$46 +165%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $14 +$11 +73%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $90 +$103 +114%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $40 +$35 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Boston Cannons vs. Philadelphia Waterdogs Jun 09 $65 +$75 +116%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $34 +$47 +138%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $35 +$5 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 117.5 Jun 09 $32 +$97 +307%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 09 $46 −$46 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $96 +$41 +43%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $10,000 $0 +0%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 06 $88 +$50 +57%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 06 $104 +$34 +33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 06 $100 −$99 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 04 $141 −$139 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $1,165 +$785 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 04 $17 +$83 +474%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $43,095 −$43,095 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 03 $273 −$266 -97%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 158.5 Jun 03 $16 +$14 +90%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $35,362 −$5,409 -15%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 02 $728 −$718 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 02 $493 −$46 -9%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $1,162 +$890 +77%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-14.5) Jun 02 $12 −$12 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $25,000 $0 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $4,667 +$333 +7%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 May 29 $4,258 +$1,262 +30%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $62,589 −$1,089 -2%
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 29 $3,533 −$534 -15%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 May 29 $3,542 −$1,297 -37%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $3,464 +$1,536 +44%
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $549 +$6 +1%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $285 +$4 +2%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $4,111 +$889 +22%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5 May 27 $611 +$389 +64%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $9,873 +$127 +1%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $60,554 +$9,792 +16%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $6,710 −$1,259 -19%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 May 25 $225 +$222 +99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $3,200 +$1,800 +56%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $9,900 +$100 +1%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5 May 23 $145 +$16 +11%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 2.5 May 23 $53 +$26 +48%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $4,300 +$5,700 +133%
Will OG Anunoby be named to the 2026 NBA All-Defensive Second Team? May 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Augustine Boakye: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $58 15m
Brandon Thomas-Asante: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $152 16m
Cecilio Waterman: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $129 16m
Jordan Ayew: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $92 1h
Kristoffer Ajer: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
Henrik Falchener: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
Julian Ryerson: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $97 1h
Morten Thorsby: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Meme: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $113 1h
Marko Farji: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
Leo Østigård: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Leo Østigård: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Kristian Thorstvedt: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Kevin Yakob: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
David Møller Wolfe: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $112 1h
Aymen Hussein: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
Ali Jasim: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $57 1h
Jorge Carrascal: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $48 1h
Valentín Barco: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,699.57 · official $10,699.59 (match) · 3500 history records