Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71fe…aeb5 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-3%) realized −$19 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$7
other 28% −$26
finance 19% +$2
sports 11% $0
politics 6% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 30% 0% -9.5%
all 27 -6.0% -14.9% 19% 0% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -12.0%
10% -23.1% 0% -20.4%
15% -30.5% 0% -28.1%
20% -37.3% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage278d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $48 $41 −$7 (-15%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 92¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $14 −$2 -12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $177 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 24 $16 $0 -2%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $74 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $51 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 20 $33 −$19 -57%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 04 $32 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $48 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $7 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $13 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $13 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $12 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $2 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $39 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $14 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $32 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $0 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $52 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $52 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $9 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $18 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.33 · official $40.80 (match) · 207 history records