trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 30% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 30% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 27 | -6.0% | -14.9% | 19% | 0% | -12.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.9% | 0% | -12.0% |
| 10% | -23.1% | 0% | -20.4% |
| 15% | -30.5% | 0% | -28.1% |
| 20% | -37.3% | 0% | -35.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 26¢ | $48 | $41 | −$7 (-15%) |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 92¢ | 76¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-17%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 04 | $14 | −$2 | -12% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 02 | $57 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 31 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 31 | $47 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $177 | +$2 | +1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 28 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 27 | $3 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 26 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? | Jan 31 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 26 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 26 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 26 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? | Nov 25 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Nov 25 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? | Nov 24 | $16 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Nov 24 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | Nov 23 | $74 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? | Nov 22 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Nov 22 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 22 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Panthers vs. 49ers | Nov 22 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Nov 21 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | Nov 21 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Nov 20 | $33 | −$19 | -57% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Nov 04 | $32 | $0 | +1% |