Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71fc…eec9 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized +$1 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%28W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$11
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$15
weather 28% −$10
other 7% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -6.0% -14.9% 64% 50% -13.6%
≤30d 46 -7.6% -16.4% 61% 48% -13.4%
≤90d 46 -7.6% -16.4% 61% 48% -13.4%
all 46 -7.6% -16.4% 61% 48% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 48% -13.4%
10% -24.4% 33% -21.7%
15% -31.7% 20% -29.3%
20% -38.4% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses28 / 18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 −$19 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 09 $12 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$6 +85%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 31h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $12 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 70¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 151 history records