Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:43:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
71 0x71fc…171a crypto 34 markets active 92d ago coverage 509d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$147,675 (+258%) realized +$147,675 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$1,685per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$164,017
culture 42% −$16,319
crypto 1% −$15
sports 0% −$20
politics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 34 +71.7% +55.3% 50% 44% +416.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.3% 44% +416.5%
10% +40.5% 44% +367.1%
15% +26.9% 38% +321.9%
20% +14.4% 38% +280.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +72% · $-wt +438% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +141% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10,235 vs −$1,548 · ×6.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.61 per $1 lost it wins $6.61
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

509d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$147,675
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage509d
Avg bet$1,685
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 29 $56 −$55 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 29 $29 +$27 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 29 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 29 $5 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 29 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 29 $123 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 29 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 29 $10 +$21 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 29 $33 +$58 +179%
Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch? Mar 29 $7 +$16 +233%
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $3,864 −$2,285 -59%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $12,012 −$7,451 -62%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m Dec 22 $17,922 −$10,183 -57%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Dec 20 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than Dec 19 $4,021 −$3,842 -96%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m Dec 19 $800 −$795 -99%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 12AM ET Nov 21 $22 −$11 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 11PM ET Nov 21 $14 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10PM ET Nov 21 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 9PM ET Nov 21 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 8PM ET Nov 21 $5 +$5 +100%
Over $60M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $300 +$2,874 +958%
Over $80M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $10,879 +$161,248 +1482%
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $4,077 +$9,514 +233%
Over $30M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $1,291 +$113 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3AM ET Oct 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Oct 09 $31 +$28 +92%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $20 +$11 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $56 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $29 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $100 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $20 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $22 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $7 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $10 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $126 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $123 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $91 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $33 92d
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale? SELL Yes 7¢ $712 169d
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? SELL Yes 13¢ $4,561 169d
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale? SELL Yes 13¢ $324 169d
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 593 history records