Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
71 0x71fb…163f crypto 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,885 (+4%) realized +$8,888 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate69%81W / 36L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,052per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$948est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$997now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,145
7 days+$6,423
14 days+$625
30 days+$5,500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$495
sports 16% +$5,089
world 4% +$1,038
other 1% −$88
politics 0% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +1.2% -8.4% 67% 52% -0.5%
≤30d 73 -1.0% -10.4% 78% 37% -6.7%
≤90d 81 -0.2% -9.7% 77% 37% -6.0%
all 117 +2.9% -6.9% 69% 39% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 39% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 28% -15.6%
15% -23.9% 25% -23.7%
20% -31.4% 20% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$2,950) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$515 vs −$975 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$997
Realized+$8,888
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses81 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$948
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage594d
Avg bet$2,052
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1,000 $997 −$3 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $504 −$500 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $302 −$37 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2,009 +$130 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $372 +$310 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $189 +$97 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1,019 +$342 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $624 +$786 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $1,031 +$725 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $8,079 +$1,256 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5,815 +$2,789 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2,066 −$2,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $904 −$861 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2,062 +$1,549 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $879 −$875 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $8,243 +$434 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $892 +$594 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $1,831 +$354 +19%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $17,546 +$6,517 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $4,904 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $4,191 −$4,191 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $2,921 +$315 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $2,950 +$907 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $2,805 −$2,799 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $2,707 +$93 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $2,509 +$123 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $2,505 +$71 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $2,408 +$112 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $2,018 +$270 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $2,001 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $2,008 +$111 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $1,668 +$73 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 06 $3,925 +$376 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $3,013 +$180 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 06 $3,608 +$110 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $3,418 +$268 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $3,307 +$90 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 06 $3,203 +$39 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $3,009 +$287 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 06 $2,810 +$140 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $2,426 +$410 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $2,308 +$117 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $1,855 +$164 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 06 $2,009 +$130 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 06 $1,905 +$67 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $565 −$560 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 06 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 06 $456 +$103 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 06 $403 +$45 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,024 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $504 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $266 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $302 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $502 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $502 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $502 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $503 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 10¢ $195 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $372 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $189 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $898 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $121 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $579 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $45 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1,756 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $403 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $629 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1,007 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1,007 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1,008 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1,008 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1,010 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1,011 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1,013 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1,015 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $510 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $932 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $864 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1,080 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $997.30 · official $1,187.30 · 1319 history records