Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
71 0x71f7…f051 crypto 796 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,504 (-216%) realized −$3,504 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%356W / 441L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +7.7% -2.5% 56% 52% -9.1%
≤30d 669 -5.0% -14.0% 46% 42% -14.5%
≤90d 797 -5.2% -14.2% 45% 39% -14.8%
all 797 -5.2% -14.2% 45% 39% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 39% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 35% -22.9%
15% -29.9% 28% -30.4%
20% -36.8% 20% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,504
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses356 / 441
Open positions0
Markets (closed)797 / 796
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 797 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records