Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71f5…1aec sports 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,488 (+11%) realized +$5,511 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%40W / 54L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$499per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$1,139est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,124
7 days+$1,090
14 days+$1,090
30 days+$5,370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$4,249
other 1% −$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -6.1% -15.1% 44% 44% +13.4%
≤30d 86 -4.2% -13.3% 43% 42% +3.3%
≤90d 94 -5.9% -14.8% 43% 41% -0.7%
all 94 -5.9% -14.8% 43% 41% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 41% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 38% -10.2%
15% -30.4% 34% -18.9%
20% -37.2% 29% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$688) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$609 vs −$377 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized+$5,511
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses40 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,139
Open positions3
Markets (closed)94 / 97
History coverage31d
Avg bet$499
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Misa Esports 58¢ 56¢ $420 $404 −$16 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki - Map 1 Winner Misa Esports 56¢ 54¢ $189 $183 −$7 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifier: Series #2 Group A SHISHKA 59¢ 58¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1,529 +$871 +57%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $220 +$414 +188%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $248 +$113 +46%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $111 −$109 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $166 −$163 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $113 −$111 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $843 +$492 +58%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag Jun 25 $391 −$385 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $688 −$33 -5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $754 −$744 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $566 −$566 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $998 −$427 -43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $580 +$425 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $708 +$471 +66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $870 −$535 -62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $331 −$174 -52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $267 +$198 +74%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $381 +$92 +24%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $344 +$101 +30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $209 +$91 +43%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $19 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $268 −$140 -52%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $204 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $558 −$236 -42%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $106 −$6 -6%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $398 +$177 +44%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $239 −$239 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $90 +$150 +165%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $185 −$184 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $155 −$153 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $115 +$35 +30%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $172 −$106 -62%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $185 +$119 +64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $35 +$48 +137%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $30 +$70 +233%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 02 $51 −$51 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $32 −$18 -56%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $14 −$14 -96%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $81 +$1 +2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 01 $1,027 +$154 +15%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $900 +$1,010 +112%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $1,557 +$1,173 +75%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $1,520 −$820 -54%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $1,535 −$1,535 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $800 −$800 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $705 +$3,295 +467%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki - Map 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 56¢ $192 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 62¢ $63 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 61¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 60¢ $77 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 59¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 57¢ $115 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 56¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 55¢ $139 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi BUY SHISHKA 59¢ $15 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $1,529 25h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $96 36h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $14 36h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $248 36h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $166 36h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $113 36h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $220 40h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $1,335 40h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 44¢ $38 42h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 43¢ $61 42h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 51¢ $26 42h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 49¢ $149 42h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 48¢ $156 42h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 48¢ $110 42h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 47¢ $26 42h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $667 45h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 50¢ $655 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 51¢ $688 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $754 14d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 51¢ $327 14d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 51¢ $56 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.02 · official $601.02 (match) · 902 history records